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#581 [url]

Dec 27 16 2:47 PM

grabarkewitz wrote:
NewportDodger wrote:
So now the Twins are left standing there with their dicks in their hands looking stupid like they usually do every year.


Yep, just like when they overplayed their hand with Johan Santana.
Exactly.

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#583 [url]

Dec 27 16 4:14 PM

What's funny is that the Twins have so few assets and they just are a terrible organization. They do very little right and have little hope of competing anytime soon. So they are sitting on their one guy who can get them a decent return and they are going as greedy as possible in a market where there are no takers but the Dodgers. I want Dozier but the longer this drags on, the more I am thinking that Friedman is going to eventually wash his hands of it and move in a different direction because you can't teach stupid teams to not be stupid. Nobody is going to give them more than we will and to get both DeLeon and Stewart for a guy who is going to do nothing to move your meter is a good move to make. The alternative is to keep him and continue to suck while missing out on two guys who could easily insert themselves into their rotation.

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#584 [url]

Dec 27 16 4:20 PM

beefchopper wrote:
I love how every team that wants to get the Dodgers to bid up on a trade raises the specter of strong interest from the Giants.
The fact that the Nationals were even mentioned as being in on Dozier raises huge questions about the credibility of the source.  Daniel Murphy put up borderline MVP numbers last year, coming off a post season in 2015 of Ruthian proportions.  Murphy has limited time at first base and third base, but the Nats seem solid at both positions.  Somebody was trying hard to manufacture some competition for the Dodgers, and everybody saw right through it.

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#585 [url]

Dec 28 16 7:59 AM

Just read the thinking at KIssyface about Jake Arrietta. Seeing as he will be one of the two big arms available this upcoming offseason and I don't see Boras signing an extension with the Cubs, I think we might be the one team who could give him the five year/$135 million deal it will likely take to sign him. Stick with me, here. We are losing some big contracts this winter in Crawford, Ethier, Guerrero, etc.... and we have the specter of Kershaw walking after 2018, so hedging our bets, we ink Arrietta, lose the draft pick, and have an option in case Kershaw gets an offer we cannot top (I know, laughable, but Greinke walked when we were all pretty sure he would resign with us, so nothing is set in stone) and a rotation of Kershaw, Arrietta, Urias, Maeda and Alvarez or Wood for at least one season. Given that I doubt we will be in on Machado, Harper, etc... why not spend the money a year earlier and get the two (or maybe, three) aces at the top of the rotation a year earlier? A fellow Texan might be enough to compel Kershaw to stick in LA for the remainder of his career.

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#587 [url]

Dec 28 16 11:18 AM

NewportDodger wrote:
I'm wondering if Arrietta has peaked though? His ERA was over 3 last year and also not great in playoffs.
I was just going to write the same thing, plus his FIP was 3.52.  He was pretty awful late in the season and single handedly killed a couple of crucial fantasy weeks for me.  He definitely won't be a "keeper" for me in next season's league.  What he does in 2017 will have a huge financial impact on his future.  He put up some ugly numbers prior to 2014.  I always had him high on my PED suspect list, just because of the huge turnaround.  (No other reason to suspect, him except for the Brady Anderson-ish improvement.)

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#588 [url]

Dec 28 16 1:21 PM

WildHare wrote:
NewportDodger wrote:
I'm wondering if Arrietta has peaked though? His ERA was over 3 last year and also not great in playoffs.
I was just going to write the same thing, plus his FIP was 3.52.  He was pretty awful late in the season and single handedly killed a couple of crucial fantasy weeks for me.  He definitely won't be a "keeper" for me in next season's league.  What he does in 2017 will have a huge financial impact on his future.  He put up some ugly numbers prior to 2014.  I always had him high on my PED suspect list, just because of the huge turnaround.  (No other reason to suspect, him except for the Brady Anderson-ish improvement.)



I kind of harbor the same thoughts about him and PED's, but the talent was there in Baltimore and even with the rough finish, he might be a better risk than Cueto and his balky elbow. But, I agree. A lot of teams will watch his 2017 closely. I would just like a fallback position if Kershaw should want to take his glove back to Dallas. I am not forgetting Darvish, but his heavy workload in Japan and his one TJ worry me even though he is the youngest of the three. I would love the pre-injury Darvish, but that guy is long gone.

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#589 [url]

Dec 28 16 1:41 PM

Admittedly, I don't know anything about advanced statistics, but I don't see a great deal of difference between Arrietta's 2016 season and Chris Sale's past two seasons, except for Arrietta getting to pitch to pitchers, but the Red Sox just gave up a king's ransom to acquire Sale.

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#590 [url]

Dec 28 16 1:53 PM

Norm wrote:
Admittedly, I don't know anything about advanced statistics, but I don't see a great deal of difference between Arrietta's 2016 season and Chris Sale's past two seasons, except for Arrietta getting to pitch to pitchers, but the Red Sox just gave up a king's ransom to acquire Sale.
Good point.  Sale has indeed been trending in the wrong direction for two years.  His 2014 was pretty unsustainable, as was Arrieta's 2015.  (Greinke in 2015, too.)

That's what makes Clayton so special.  When you think he can't possibly get any better, HE DOES!  

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#591 [url]

Dec 28 16 2:18 PM

Regarding Dozier and the situation as I see it; The Twins need to make the trade before Opening Day for these reasons. 1) Dozier gets off to another slow start and JDL or Alvarez is off the table. 2) If JDL gets off to a strong start here or OKC, he is off the table. 3) The Twins need to make the deal soon because one year and X amount of months of Dozier will get you less because of the lack openings at second base, the lack of compensation when Dozier walks (which takes over half the teams in this league because of the price of his next contract) and the fact that the one team with the finances to pay him into his mid thirties and an opening at second can just pick up the phone and call Jon Daniels about Profar or the new CPA running the Rays about Forsythe.

Simply put, the Twins need to do this and soon. Getting both JDL and Alvarez is a non-starter and if Alvarez is the main piece of the deal, the Twins' faithful will howl from here to Mankato about getting a guy two years from the show. At some point in the next week or so, I see the Twins backing down and taking a still generous package from the Dodgers. JDL will be a nice fit in their rotation and if piece number two is Stewart, they get a very good 3/4 and as I think the last piece will be either Stripling or Pedro Baez, the Twins' pitching will be the strongest it has been since the early nineties. Our front office is playing this smart while the Twins show they are worried because they dropping these worthless rumors about the Nats, Cardinals and Giants, which are baseless and insulting to all concerned. This just mirrors the Santana dealings when the Twin front office dropped rumors about the Jays, Yankees or Red Sox ready to get into a bidding war for Santana when the only team willing to pay the salary, give up the prospects and ready to,pull the trigger and if I remember correctly, the Mets backed off on a bigger package when the Twins started playing games. For all we know, the Dodgers may be pulling names out of the deal now. Hell, it could be JDL, Luis Avilan and Kike for Dozier tomorrow. Not likely but who's to say.

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#593 [url]

Dec 28 16 4:45 PM

SCDodgerFan wrote:
I would not be unhappy to start the season with the current roster after adding Utley.  Give the young guys a chance!
I can see where you're coming from there.  Delino had some solid years before we got him, but acquiring him would not have looked so bad EXCEPT for who we gave in return.  JDL is not likely to be the second coming of Pedro, but it's always the chance you take dealing a 24 year-old pitcher.  Dozier's career numbers are not that great if you throw out 2016, so we could be buying high.

The only way I want Utley back is a strict platoon situation (his splits were horrible last year), and I don't want Kike' if last year is any indication.  That's why I am a broken record on why the hell did we deal Howie.

In this poker game, maybe the Dodgers should start lauding Willie Calhoun as ready.  smiley: grin

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#594 [url]

Dec 28 16 6:27 PM

WildHare wrote:
SCDodgerFan wrote:
I would not be unhappy to start the season with the current roster after adding Utley.  Give the young guys a chance!
I can see where you're coming from there.  Delino had some solid years before we got him, but acquiring him would not have looked so bad EXCEPT for who we gave in return.  JDL is not likely to be the second coming of Pedro, but it's always the chance you take dealing a 24 year-old pitcher.  Dozier's career numbers are not that great if you throw out 2016, so we could be buying high.

The only way I want Utley back is a strict platoon situation (his splits were horrible last year), and I don't want Kike' if last year is any indication.  That's why I am a broken record on why the hell did we deal Howie.

In this poker game, maybe the Dodgers should start lauding Willie Calhoun as ready.  smiley: grin

But, Dozier's numbers are better than anything on this roster versus righties and who can play second base.    I like Calhoun, but the guy is range-challenged and his glove, while not iron, is close to a metal (aluminum or tin).   Add in a weak arm and we have the recipe for Dan Uggla.    Now, I am a believer that range and arm can be fixed with positioning and coaching, but a near-ferrous glove is something that needs work and reps to improve.    Give the kid a season in OKC where his development will not be curtailed by late inning defensive replacements and platoons like would be the case in Los Angeles.   I am not worried if JDL becomes something special because he isn't all we have on the farm.   Just move Alvarez, Oaks, DeJong, Buehler, etc...up a rung.  

I have to say I did get a good laugh from Heyman's story that some "front office types" think that the Dodgers are being stingy in their return for Dozier.    Funny thing, these same folks will roll their eyes and kvetch if the Dodgers overpay for Dozier.   We can't win, so why try.   Hold out while the Twins pray for someone to offer them something comparable for Dozier.  It won't happen but it is nice to dream.   On opening day, Dozier will be manning the keystone for the Dodgers and batting second or fifth (I am thinking Toles leading off and Seager moving to third with Turner fourth and AGon batting fifth) when we take the field.  

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#595 [url]

Dec 29 16 4:07 AM

The Twins need to take a look at Dozier's lifetime numbers over 4.5 mlb seasons. His lifetime numbers are .246/.320/.442. That's solid, but not spectacular. He's got some speed but strikes out a lot. His home runs have trended upward and took a dramatic jump last year, and that seems to be the Twins' value basis. And, of course, a right handed hitting second baseman is exactly what the Dodgers need and ready and near ready pitching prospects are exactly what we have in abundance. It would be interesting to know exactly what we're offering and what the Twins are demanding, and if there is some middle ground.

It may be one of those "you'll regret it later" scenarios, "but the future is now" for the Dodgers. Get Dozier sign Holland to a two-year incentive laden deal with a decent base, and win the World Series in 2017.

Just realized what I wrote...Twins are asking for too much, but do it anyway, within reason.

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#596 [url]

Dec 29 16 6:30 AM

WildHare wrote:
The Twins need to take a look at Dozier's lifetime numbers over 4.5 mlb seasons. His lifetime numbers are .246/.320/.442. That's solid, but not spectacular. He's got some speed but strikes out a lot. His home runs have trended upward and took a dramatic jump last year, and that seems to be the Twins' value basis. And, of course, a right handed hitting second baseman is exactly what the Dodgers need and ready and near ready pitching prospects are exactly what we have in abundance. It would be interesting to know exactly what we're offering and what the Twins are demanding, and if there is some middle ground.

It may be one of those "you'll regret it later" scenarios, "but the future is now" for the Dodgers. Get Dozier sign Holland to a two-year incentive laden deal with a decent base, and win the World Series in 2017.

Just realized what I wrote...Twins are asking for too much, but do it anyway, within reason.
I agree, we are going to overpay for Dozier, the only question being to what degree.   In my thinking, JDL for Dozier is a fair deal, but won't happen in this universe.    As long as we don't venture into the Mike Rizzo area of overpay, we are good.   Depth is a wonderful thing, so we can absorb a loss of a second top ten prospect (as long as it isn't Bellinger or Alvarez or Buehler) and a third piece in the 20-30 range or Baez, just because my heart can't take one more inning in a close game of watching this guy feed thigh high fastballs to fastball hitters.   I am even good with Calhoun, because at the end of the day, I think he is an AL player even though the bat is a hard thing to lose.   But, if we do deal Calhoun, I hope we have a plan to either extend Dozier or we are targeting a prospect who can handle second in 2019 (Tim Locastro might be that option if he continues to progress offensively).  

I would love Holland, but I think we are signing Blanton.  I am good with this, as long as Pigpen doesn't abuse him like a rented mule.   I also wouldn't be unhappy if we inked Jerry Blevins as a different look in our pen.   I like our lefties, but Dayton, Liberatore and Avilan are too similar and I think we need a guy who resembles Jedediah, but has better command.   

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#597 [url]

Dec 29 16 7:08 AM

The way Blanton tanked in the playoffs, I am not too high on his return. I was always kind of surprised when he would do as well as he did, because his stuff always looked very hittable. Of course, on the other hand, Baez and Hatcher were throwing mid-high-90's and serving up gopher balls left and right. Blanton may have just been out of gas from over use. On the other hand, Holland put up Jansen-esque numbers in 2013 and 2014. He lost 2 mph on his fastball in '15, probably due to the elbow problem. If his fastball is back up around 96 and he has the bite on the slider, he's a dominant force out of the pen.

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#598 [url]

Dec 29 16 7:52 AM

Does Dozier put us over the top? I'm not so sure because he is just one player. He helps us tremendously but the cost has to be there. They won't deal more than a JDL, Stewart plus a player type of package. It's just not worth it.

I can see them holding firm, signing Utley and waiting until we get close to ST and maybe seeing if they blink or going out and getting a Brandon Phillips type guy or Forsythe.

Blanton is "Buyer Beware," because he is older and could have been a one-trick pony. Holland has same risk and most likely both will take a 2-Year deal. Rumors are the Rockies offered 2 years for him but does he want to resurrect his career in that park and with that pile of shit team? I'm thinking not unless that's the only offer.

I would like to see if we can get Robertson for a decent package to setup KJ. The White Sox are selling all the fixtures and the furniture right now.

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#599 [url]

Dec 29 16 7:57 AM

WildHare wrote:
The way Blanton tanked in the playoffs, I am not too high on his return. I was always kind of surprised when he would do as well as he did, because his stuff always looked very hittable. Of course, on the other hand, Baez and Hatcher were throwing mid-high-90's and serving up gopher balls left and right. Blanton may have just been out of gas from over use. On the other hand, Holland put up Jansen-esque numbers in 2013 and 2014. He lost 2 mph on his fastball in '15, probably due to the elbow problem. If his fastball is back up around 96 and he has the bite on the slider, he's a dominant force out of the pen.
The larger question is the willingness of this front office to give Holland two years just after his elbow went pop.   One and an option would be fine with me with a low guarantee and something like Maeda's deal in perks, but I am sure some team (Nationals) will offer him two years guaranteed at about $9 million per and there is no way we can top that money or would want to.   But, with Rizzo's ability to scare off most free agents, I think he will do something to scare Holland away, too.    To be honest, I see Rizzo paying the freight to get Robertson from the Pale Hose.   The one pitcher I might overpay for is still out there in Quintana.   I know, four lefties, but when you look at our present four lefties, I am not worried so much about splits.   Add in Quintana and it is much the same thing.   I figure the cost for Quintana will likely include Wood and one of Verdugo, Calhoun or Alvarez to happen.   Still think the Pirates will bite the bullet and send Glasnow and Meadows to the White Sox for Quintana at the end of the day and the White Sox will suddenly have the top farm in the game.  

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#600 [url]

Dec 29 16 8:02 AM

NewportDodger wrote:
Does Dozier put us over the top? I'm not so sure because he is just one player. He helps us tremendously but the cost has to be there. They won't deal more than a JDL, Stewart plus a player type of package. It's just not worth it.

I can see them holding firm, signing Utley and waiting until we get close to ST and maybe seeing if they blink or going out and getting a Brandon Phillips type guy or Forsythe.

Blanton is "Buyer Beware," because he is older and could have been a one-trick pony. Holland has same risk and most likely both will take a 2-Year deal. Rumors are the Rockies offered 2 years for him but does he want to resurrect his career in that park and with that pile of shit team? I'm thinking not unless that's the only offer.

I would like to see if we can get Robertson for a decent package to setup KJ. The White Sox are selling all the fixtures and the furniture right now.
But Hahn is greedy and after robbing the Nationals blind on Eaton, he will be coming loaded for bear for Robertson.   If the Sox are eating salary, then I am good with a package featuring Sheffield and DeJong, but unless he is shipping over Quintana, I hope we don't consider moving Calhoun or Verdugo for an expensive set up guy.   I would be watching the Orioles, seeing as how their window is closing, they might be willing to move one of their bullpen arms for a young starter and a guy like Brach could be an interesting get.  

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